集成“能力-时效-决策”的应急处置效果预评估模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.12.021

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (12): 148-156.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.12.021

集成“能力-时效-决策”的应急处置效果预评估模型

倪慧荟¹ 副研究员, 姚晓晖¹ 副研究员, 初玉² 高级工程师, 石彪^**3 副研究员

1 北京市劳动保护科学研究所安全与应急管理研究室,北京 100054;
2 中国科学院科技创新发展中心,北京 100190;
3 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京 100190

收稿日期:2020-09-09 修回日期:2020-11-16 出版日期:2020-12-28 发布日期:2021-07-15
通讯作者: **石彪(1982—),男,甘肃渭源人,博士,副研究员,主要从事风险管理、应急管理、科技安全等方面的研究。E-mail:shibiao@casisd.cn。
作者简介:倪慧荟 (1982—),男,江苏昆山人,硕士,副研究员,主要从事公共安全、应急管理、风险评估等方面的研究。E-mail: nihuihui@kingehs.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(L1724043);国家重点研发计划子课题(2018YFK0822805)。

A capacity-efficiency-decision integrated pre-assessment model for effectiveness of emergency plans

NI Huihui¹, YAO Xiaohui¹, CHU Yu², SHI Biao³

1 Lab of Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Municipal Institute of Labour Protection, Beijing 100054, China;
2 Science and Technology Innovation and Development Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;
3 Institute of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

Received:2020-09-09 Revised:2020-11-16 Online:2020-12-28 Published:2021-07-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为帮助应急指挥官优化任务调度和资源配置,首先,分析应急处置的基本模式,并定义包括行动目标、行动模块、应急资源、指挥者等基本元素在内的应急处置关系结构模型;其次,利用时效性评估、广义优先关系(GPRs)、C2组织架构(C2OS)等理论,建立能力满足度、时效性、决策质量等单项评估函数;然后,组合得到集成“能力-时效-决策”的应急处置效果预评估模型;最后,结合算例对不同处置方案进行预评估和比较分析,并验证该模型的有效性。结果表明:集成“能力-时效-决策”的评估模型可满足通用的应急处置效果预评估需求;存在诸多途径可以增强应急处置预期效果,包括改良资源配置及赋能效率、优化处置行动及其GPRs结构、完善指挥层级架构等。

关键词: 能力-时效-决策, 应急处置, 效果预评估, 广义优先关系(GPRs), 决策质量

Abstract: In order to optimize task scheduling and resource allocation, firstly, basic pattern of emergency disposal was analyzed, and a structural model of emergency disposal with fundamental elements like objects, action modules, resources, decision-makers was defined. Secondly, single assessment functions, including capacity satisfaction, action efficiency and decision quality were constructed successively by incorporating theories of efficiency evaluation, GPRs and command & control organizational structure (C2OS). Then, a capacity-efficiency-decision integrated pre-assessment model for effectiveness of emergency plans was established. Finally, different disposal plans were assessed and compared through case studies, and effectiveness of the model was verified. The results show that the integrated model can be applied to pre-assess expected effectiveness of emergency plans which can be improved by various measures, such as improving allocation and empowerment effectiveness of resources, optimizing selection and GPRs network of action modules, and refining hierarchy of decision-makers.

Key words: capacity-efficiency-decision, emergency disposal, integrated pre-assessment, generalized precedence relations(GPRs), decision quality

中图分类号:

X928.9

倪慧荟, 姚晓晖, 初玉, 石彪. 集成“能力-时效-决策”的应急处置效果预评估模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(12): 148-156.

NI Huihui, YAO Xiaohui, CHU Yu, SHI Biao. A capacity-efficiency-decision integrated pre-assessment model for effectiveness of emergency plans[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(12): 148-156.

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集成“能力-时效-决策”的应急处置效果预评估模型

A capacity-efficiency-decision integrated pre-assessment model for effectiveness of emergency plans

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